We simulated Port Vale vs Rochdale 100,000 times. Port Vale won 59,273 of them (59.3%), the draw came up 24.4% of the time and Rochdale won 16.4%. The most likely score is 1-0 (13.4%), and both teams score in 45% of simulations.
| Port Vale win | 59.3% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24.4% |
| Rochdale win | 16.4% |
| Most likely score | 1-0 (13.4%) |
| Expected goals | 1.74 – 0.79 |
| Both teams to score | 45% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.1% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.9% |
| Port Vale score first | 65.3% |
| Rochdale score first | 25.8% |
| Port Vale clean sheet | 45.7% |
| Rochdale clean sheet | 18% |
Barnet
York City
1.8–1.3
xG
61%
Over 2.5
Newport County
Chesterfield
1.2–1.5
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Grimsby Town
York City
1.7–1.3
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Salford City
Exeter City
1.9–0.8
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Oldham Athletic
Crawley Town
2.2–1.1
xG
64%
Over 2.5
Fleetwood Town
Bristol Rovers
1.5–1.3
xG
51%
Over 2.5
Colchester United
Walsall
1.4–1.2
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Crewe Alexandra
Barnet
1.5–1.6
xG
61%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420646806 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Port Vale are favourites. They win 59.3% of our 100,000 simulations, against 24.4% for the draw and 16.4% for Rochdale. Including the draw, Port Vale avoid defeat 83.6% of the time.
1-0, which came up in 13.4% of simulations. Next are 2-0 (12%) and 1-1 (11.3%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 45% of simulations. Port Vale keep a clean sheet 45.7% of the time and Rochdale 18%.
The simulations average 2.52 goals: 1.74 for Port Vale and 0.79 for Rochdale. Over 1.5 goals lands 71.9% of the time, over 2.5 goals 46.1% and over 3.5 goals 24.9%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
