We simulated Newport County vs Colchester United 100,000 times. Newport County won 40,516 of them (40.5%), the draw came up 26.6% of the time and Colchester United won 32.9%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.5%, while the likeliest Newport County win is 2-1 (8.6%). Both teams score in 56.6% of simulations.
| Newport County win | 40.5% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 26.6% |
| Colchester United win | 32.9% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.5%) |
| Expected goals | 1.48 – 1.31 |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.7% |
| Newport County score first | 52% |
| Colchester United score first | 41.2% |
| Newport County clean sheet | 27.4% |
| Colchester United clean sheet | 23.2% |
Swindon Town
Crewe Alexandra
1.4–1.3
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Oldham Athletic
Accrington Stanley
1.9–1.0
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Fleetwood Town
Walsall
1.5–1.2
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Cheltenham Town
Salford City
1.3–1.8
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Port Vale
Grimsby Town
1.4–1.2
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Crawley Town
Chesterfield
1.2–2.0
xG
61%
Over 2.5
York City
Northampton Town
2.0–0.8
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Tranmere Rovers
Rochdale
1.6–1.0
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420646575 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Newport County are favourites. They win 40.5% of our 100,000 simulations, against 26.6% for the draw and 32.9% for Colchester United. Including the draw, Newport County avoid defeat 67.1% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.5% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (8.6%) and 1-0 (8.4%). The likeliest Newport County win is 2-1 (8.6%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 56.6% of simulations. Newport County keep a clean sheet 27.4% of the time and Colchester United 23.2%.
The simulations average 2.79 goals: 1.48 for Newport County and 1.31 for Colchester United. Over 1.5 goals lands 77.1% of the time, over 2.5 goals 52.6% and over 3.5 goals 30.7%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Betfair Exchange), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
