We simulated Port Vale vs Grimsby Town 100,000 times. Port Vale won 40,755 of them (40.8%), the draw came up 29.9% of the time and Grimsby Town won 29.4%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 14.1%, while the likeliest Port Vale win is 1-0 (9.2%). Both teams score in 52.7% of simulations.
| Port Vale win | 40.8% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 29.9% |
| Grimsby Town win | 29.4% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (14.1%) |
| Expected goals | 1.40 – 1.15 |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.8% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.5% |
| Port Vale score first | 52.5% |
| Grimsby Town score first | 37.8% |
| Port Vale clean sheet | 31.9% |
| Grimsby Town clean sheet | 25.1% |
Swindon Town
Crewe Alexandra
1.4–1.3
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Oldham Athletic
Accrington Stanley
1.9–1.0
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Fleetwood Town
Walsall
1.5–1.2
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Cheltenham Town
Salford City
1.3–1.8
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Newport County
Colchester United
1.5–1.3
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Crawley Town
Chesterfield
1.2–2.0
xG
61%
Over 2.5
York City
Northampton Town
2.0–0.8
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Tranmere Rovers
Rochdale
1.6–1.0
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420646826 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Port Vale are favourites. They win 40.8% of our 100,000 simulations, against 29.9% for the draw and 29.4% for Grimsby Town. Including the draw, Port Vale avoid defeat 70.6% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 14.1% of simulations. Next are 0-0 (9.8%) and 1-0 (9.2%). The likeliest Port Vale win is 1-0 (9.2%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 52.7% of simulations. Port Vale keep a clean sheet 31.9% of the time and Grimsby Town 25.1%.
The simulations average 2.55 goals: 1.40 for Port Vale and 1.15 for Grimsby Town. Over 1.5 goals lands 73.7% of the time, over 2.5 goals 46.8% and over 3.5 goals 25.5%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Betfair Exchange), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
