We simulated Swindon Town vs Crewe Alexandra 100,000 times. Swindon Town won 37,738 of them (37.7%), the draw came up 28.5% of the time and Crewe Alexandra won 33.8%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 13.4%, while the likeliest Swindon Town win is 2-1 (8.4%). Both teams score in 55.6% of simulations.
| Swindon Town win | 37.7% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 28.5% |
| Crewe Alexandra win | 33.8% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (13.4%) |
| Expected goals | 1.39 – 1.31 |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.4% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.6% |
| Swindon Town score first | 46.2% |
| Crewe Alexandra score first | 45.6% |
| Swindon Town clean sheet | 27.5% |
| Crewe Alexandra clean sheet | 25.2% |
Oldham Athletic
Accrington Stanley
1.9–1.0
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Fleetwood Town
Walsall
1.5–1.2
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Cheltenham Town
Salford City
1.3–1.8
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Newport County
Colchester United
1.5–1.3
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Port Vale
Grimsby Town
1.4–1.2
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Crawley Town
Chesterfield
1.2–2.0
xG
61%
Over 2.5
York City
Northampton Town
2.0–0.8
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Tranmere Rovers
Rochdale
1.6–1.0
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420646572 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Swindon Town are favourites. They win 37.7% of our 100,000 simulations, against 28.5% for the draw and 33.8% for Crewe Alexandra. Including the draw, Swindon Town avoid defeat 66.2% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 13.4% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (8.4%) and 0-0 (8.3%). The likeliest Swindon Town win is 2-1 (8.4%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 55.6% of simulations. Swindon Town keep a clean sheet 27.5% of the time and Crewe Alexandra 25.2%.
The simulations average 2.70 goals: 1.39 for Swindon Town and 1.31 for Crewe Alexandra. Over 1.5 goals lands 76.2% of the time, over 2.5 goals 50.4% and over 3.5 goals 28.6%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
