We simulated Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen 100,000 times. Ajax won 70,225 of them (70.2%), the draw came up 15.9% of the time and NEC Nijmegen won 13.9%. The most likely score is 2-1 (8.8%), and both teams score in 62.7% of simulations.
| Ajax win | 70.2% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 15.9% |
| NEC Nijmegen win | 13.9% |
| Most likely score | 2-1 (8.8%) |
| Expected goals | 2.71 – 1.14 |
| Both teams to score | 62.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.3% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 53.2% |
| Ajax score first | 66.7% |
| NEC Nijmegen score first | 31.1% |
| Ajax clean sheet | 32.5% |
| NEC Nijmegen clean sheet | 7% |
PSV
SC Heerenveen
3.0–1.3
xG
80%
Over 2.5
Go Ahead Eagles
Sparta Rotterdam
2.1–1.4
xG
68%
Over 2.5
Feyenoord
AZ Alkmaar
2.0–1.5
xG
68%
Over 2.5
Fortuna Sittard
FC Twente
1.0–2.6
xG
69%
Over 2.5
FC Utrecht
Willem II
2.1–1.2
xG
65%
Over 2.5
PEC Zwolle
SC Cambuur
1.7–1.5
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Telstar
ADO Den Haag
1.7–1.5
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Excelsior
FC Groningen
1.6–1.6
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420609699 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Ajax are favourites. They win 70.2% of our 100,000 simulations, against 15.9% for the draw and 13.9% for NEC Nijmegen. Including the draw, Ajax avoid defeat 86.1% of the time.
2-1, which came up in 8.8% of simulations. Next are 2-0 (7.8%) and 3-1 (7.8%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 62.7% of simulations. Ajax keep a clean sheet 32.5% of the time and NEC Nijmegen 7%.
The simulations average 3.84 goals: 2.71 for Ajax and 1.14 for NEC Nijmegen. Over 1.5 goals lands 89.2% of the time, over 2.5 goals 73.3% and over 3.5 goals 53.2%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
