We simulated Excelsior vs FC Groningen 100,000 times. FC Groningen won 37,854 of them (37.9%), the draw came up 25.4% of the time and Excelsior won 36.7%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.3%, while the likeliest FC Groningen win is 1-2 (8.2%). Both teams score in 64.4% of simulations.
| Excelsior win | 36.7% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25.4% |
| FC Groningen win | 37.9% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.3%) |
| Expected goals | 1.60 – 1.63 |
| Both teams to score | 64.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.1% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.2% |
| Excelsior score first | 44% |
| FC Groningen score first | 50.6% |
| Excelsior clean sheet | 20.2% |
| FC Groningen clean sheet | 20.8% |
PSV
SC Heerenveen
3.0–1.3
xG
80%
Over 2.5
Go Ahead Eagles
Sparta Rotterdam
2.1–1.4
xG
68%
Over 2.5
Feyenoord
AZ Alkmaar
2.0–1.5
xG
68%
Over 2.5
Fortuna Sittard
FC Twente
1.0–2.6
xG
69%
Over 2.5
Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
2.7–1.1
xG
73%
Over 2.5
FC Utrecht
Willem II
2.1–1.2
xG
65%
Over 2.5
PEC Zwolle
SC Cambuur
1.7–1.5
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Telstar
ADO Den Haag
1.7–1.5
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420609706 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
FC Groningen are favourites. They win 37.9% of our 100,000 simulations, against 25.4% for the draw and 36.7% for Excelsior. Including the draw, FC Groningen avoid defeat 63.3% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.3% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (8.2%) and 2-1 (8.1%). The likeliest FC Groningen win is 1-2 (8.2%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 64.4% of simulations. Excelsior keep a clean sheet 20.2% of the time and FC Groningen 20.8%.
The simulations average 3.22 goals: 1.60 for Excelsior and 1.63 for FC Groningen. Over 1.5 goals lands 83.9% of the time, over 2.5 goals 62.1% and over 3.5 goals 40.2%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here 1xBet), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
