We simulated Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar 100,000 times. Feyenoord won 49,111 of them (49.1%), the draw came up 23.2% of the time and AZ Alkmaar won 27.7%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 9.8%, while the likeliest Feyenoord win is 2-1 (8.9%). Both teams score in 67.8% of simulations.
| Feyenoord win | 49.1% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23.2% |
| AZ Alkmaar win | 27.7% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (9.8%) |
| Expected goals | 2.04 – 1.50 |
| Both teams to score | 67.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.2% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% |
| Feyenoord score first | 58.3% |
| AZ Alkmaar score first | 37.6% |
| Feyenoord clean sheet | 22.8% |
| AZ Alkmaar clean sheet | 13.5% |
PSV
SC Heerenveen
3.0–1.3
xG
80%
Over 2.5
Go Ahead Eagles
Sparta Rotterdam
2.1–1.4
xG
68%
Over 2.5
Fortuna Sittard
FC Twente
1.0–2.6
xG
69%
Over 2.5
Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
2.7–1.1
xG
73%
Over 2.5
FC Utrecht
Willem II
2.1–1.2
xG
65%
Over 2.5
PEC Zwolle
SC Cambuur
1.7–1.5
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Telstar
ADO Den Haag
1.7–1.5
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Excelsior
FC Groningen
1.6–1.6
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420609659 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Feyenoord are favourites. They win 49.1% of our 100,000 simulations, against 23.2% for the draw and 27.7% for AZ Alkmaar. Including the draw, Feyenoord avoid defeat 72.3% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 9.8% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-2 (6.6%). The likeliest Feyenoord win is 2-1 (8.9%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 67.8% of simulations. Feyenoord keep a clean sheet 22.8% of the time and AZ Alkmaar 13.5%.
The simulations average 3.54 goals: 2.04 for Feyenoord and 1.50 for AZ Alkmaar. Over 1.5 goals lands 87.4% of the time, over 2.5 goals 68.2% and over 3.5 goals 47%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Betfair Exchange), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
