We simulated Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad 100,000 times. Athletic Club won 47,871 of them (47.9%), the draw came up 24.9% of the time and Real Sociedad won 27.2%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.5%, while the likeliest Athletic Club win is 2-1 (9.3%). Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
| Athletic Club win | 47.9% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24.9% |
| Real Sociedad win | 27.2% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.5%) |
| Expected goals | 1.76 – 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | 60% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.1% |
| Athletic Club score first | 46.2% |
| Real Sociedad score first | 47.9% |
| Athletic Club clean sheet | 28.2% |
| Real Sociedad clean sheet | 17.6% |
Villarreal
Espanyol
2.2–1.0
xG
61%
Over 2.5
Levante
Atlético de Madrid
1.2–2.0
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Rayo Vallecano
Celta de Vigo
1.3–1.1
xG
41%
Over 2.5
Real Betis
Málaga
2.4–0.9
xG
63%
Over 2.5
FC Barcelona
Deportivo Alavés
3.3–0.7
xG
76%
Over 2.5
Getafe
Sevilla
1.1–1.2
xG
39%
Over 2.5
Racing Santander
Real Madrid
1.1–3.0
xG
77%
Over 2.5
Elche
Valencia
1.4–1.3
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420654549 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Athletic Club are favourites. They win 47.9% of our 100,000 simulations, against 24.9% for the draw and 27.2% for Real Sociedad. Including the draw, Athletic Club avoid defeat 72.8% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.5% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (9.3%) and 1-0 (7.7%). The likeliest Athletic Club win is 2-1 (9.3%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. Athletic Club keep a clean sheet 28.2% of the time and Real Sociedad 17.6%.
The simulations average 3.04 goals: 1.76 for Athletic Club and 1.28 for Real Sociedad. Over 1.5 goals lands 81.1% of the time, over 2.5 goals 58.3% and over 3.5 goals 36.1%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
