We simulated Rayo Vallecano vs Celta de Vigo 100,000 times. Rayo Vallecano won 39,492 of them (39.5%), the draw came up 29.7% of the time and Celta de Vigo won 30.8%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 13.8%, while the likeliest Rayo Vallecano win is 1-0 (11.4%). Both teams score in 47.5% of simulations.
| Rayo Vallecano win | 39.5% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 29.7% |
| Celta de Vigo win | 30.8% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (13.8%) |
| Expected goals | 1.25 – 1.08 |
| Both teams to score | 47.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.1% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.8% |
| Rayo Vallecano score first | 50.4% |
| Celta de Vigo score first | 38.6% |
| Rayo Vallecano clean sheet | 34.4% |
| Celta de Vigo clean sheet | 28.9% |
Villarreal
Espanyol
2.2–1.0
xG
61%
Over 2.5
Levante
Atlético de Madrid
1.2–2.0
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Real Betis
Málaga
2.4–0.9
xG
63%
Over 2.5
FC Barcelona
Deportivo Alavés
3.3–0.7
xG
76%
Over 2.5
Getafe
Sevilla
1.1–1.2
xG
39%
Over 2.5
Racing Santander
Real Madrid
1.1–3.0
xG
77%
Over 2.5
Elche
Valencia
1.4–1.3
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Athletic Club
Real Sociedad
1.8–1.3
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420654531 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Rayo Vallecano are favourites. They win 39.5% of our 100,000 simulations, against 29.7% for the draw and 30.8% for Celta de Vigo. Including the draw, Rayo Vallecano avoid defeat 69.2% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 13.8% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (11.4%) and 0-0 (10.8%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win is 1-0 (11.4%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 47.5% of simulations. Rayo Vallecano keep a clean sheet 34.4% of the time and Celta de Vigo 28.9%.
The simulations average 2.33 goals: 1.25 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.08 for Celta de Vigo. Over 1.5 goals lands 68.2% of the time, over 2.5 goals 41.1% and over 3.5 goals 20.8%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
