We simulated Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City 100,000 times. Bolton Wanderers won 39,405 of them (39.4%), the draw came up 27.5% of the time and Stoke City won 33.1%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 13%, while the likeliest Bolton Wanderers win is 1-0 (9.2%). Both teams score in 53.8% of simulations.
| Bolton Wanderers win | 39.4% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 27.5% |
| Stoke City win | 33.1% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (13%) |
| Expected goals | 1.39 – 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.1% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.4% |
| Bolton Wanderers score first | 47.2% |
| Stoke City score first | 44.8% |
| Bolton Wanderers clean sheet | 29% |
| Stoke City clean sheet | 25.3% |
West Ham United
Queens Park Rangers
2.3–1.1
xG
65%
Over 2.5
West Bromwich Albion
Birmingham City
1.5–1.2
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Swansea City
Norwich City
1.6–1.2
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Charlton Athletic
Bristol City
1.1–1.3
xG
44%
Over 2.5
Derby County
Wrexham
1.3–1.3
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Middlesbrough
Wolverhampton Wanderers
1.8–1.5
xG
63%
Over 2.5
Preston North End
Millwall
1.5–1.5
xG
57%
Over 2.5
Sheffield United
Lincoln City
1.4–1.2
xG
48%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420644038 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Bolton Wanderers are favourites. They win 39.4% of our 100,000 simulations, against 27.5% for the draw and 33.1% for Stoke City. Including the draw, Bolton Wanderers avoid defeat 66.9% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 13% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (9.2%) and 2-1 (8.4%). The likeliest Bolton Wanderers win is 1-0 (9.2%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 53.8% of simulations. Bolton Wanderers keep a clean sheet 29% of the time and Stoke City 25.3%.
The simulations average 2.64 goals: 1.39 for Bolton Wanderers and 1.25 for Stoke City. Over 1.5 goals lands 74.5% of the time, over 2.5 goals 49.1% and over 3.5 goals 27.4%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Betfair Exchange), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
