We simulated Derby County vs Wrexham 100,000 times. Wrexham won 37,057 of them (37.1%), the draw came up 27.7% of the time and Derby County won 35.3%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 13%, while the likeliest Wrexham win is 0-1 (9.7%). Both teams score in 51.8% of simulations.
| Derby County win | 35.3% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 27.7% |
| Wrexham win | 37.1% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (13%) |
| Expected goals | 1.25 – 1.29 |
| Both teams to score | 51.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.7% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.3% |
| Derby County score first | 45% |
| Wrexham score first | 46.6% |
| Derby County clean sheet | 27.8% |
| Wrexham clean sheet | 28.9% |
West Ham United
Queens Park Rangers
2.3–1.1
xG
65%
Over 2.5
West Bromwich Albion
Birmingham City
1.5–1.2
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Swansea City
Norwich City
1.6–1.2
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Charlton Athletic
Bristol City
1.1–1.3
xG
44%
Over 2.5
Middlesbrough
Wolverhampton Wanderers
1.8–1.5
xG
63%
Over 2.5
Preston North End
Millwall
1.5–1.5
xG
57%
Over 2.5
Bolton Wanderers
Stoke City
1.4–1.3
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Sheffield United
Lincoln City
1.4–1.2
xG
48%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420643631 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Wrexham are favourites. They win 37.1% of our 100,000 simulations, against 27.7% for the draw and 35.3% for Derby County. Including the draw, Wrexham avoid defeat 64.7% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 13% of simulations. Next are 0-1 (9.7%) and 1-0 (9.4%). The likeliest Wrexham win is 0-1 (9.7%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 51.8% of simulations. Derby County keep a clean sheet 27.8% of the time and Wrexham 28.9%.
The simulations average 2.55 goals: 1.25 for Derby County and 1.29 for Wrexham. Over 1.5 goals lands 72.4% of the time, over 2.5 goals 46.7% and over 3.5 goals 25.3%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
