We simulated Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen 100,000 times. Borussia Dortmund won 68,260 of them (68.3%), the draw came up 17.8% of the time and Werder Bremen won 13.9%. The most likely score is 2-0 (9.8%), and both teams score in 56% of simulations.
| Borussia Dortmund win | 68.3% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 17.8% |
| Werder Bremen win | 13.9% |
| Most likely score | 2-0 (9.8%) |
| Expected goals | 2.39 – 0.97 |
| Both teams to score | 56% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.8% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.2% |
| Borussia Dortmund score first | 71.4% |
| Werder Bremen score first | 24.8% |
| Borussia Dortmund clean sheet | 38.1% |
| Werder Bremen clean sheet | 9.6% |
FC Union Berlin
Elversberg
1.7–1.6
xG
64%
Over 2.5
FC Augsburg
FC Bayern München
1.2–3.3
xG
81%
Over 2.5
FSV Mainz 05
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
1.7–1.7
xG
65%
Over 2.5
Paderborn
VfB Stuttgart
1.4–2.1
xG
66%
Over 2.5
TSG Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV
2.5–1.1
xG
69%
Over 2.5
RB Leipzig
Eintracht Frankfurt
2.4–1.4
xG
73%
Over 2.5
FC Köln
Borussia Mönchengladbach
2.0–1.5
xG
68%
Over 2.5
SC Freiburg
Schalke 04
2.1–1.1
xG
63%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420679102 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Borussia Dortmund are favourites. They win 68.3% of our 100,000 simulations, against 17.8% for the draw and 13.9% for Werder Bremen. Including the draw, Borussia Dortmund avoid defeat 86.1% of the time.
2-0, which came up in 9.8% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (9.4%) and 1-0 (8.4%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 56% of simulations. Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet 38.1% of the time and Werder Bremen 9.6%.
The simulations average 3.36 goals: 2.39 for Borussia Dortmund and 0.97 for Werder Bremen. Over 1.5 goals lands 84.5% of the time, over 2.5 goals 64.8% and over 3.5 goals 43.2%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Betfair Exchange), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
