We simulated FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen 100,000 times. Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 38,290 of them (38.3%), the draw came up 24.3% of the time and FSV Mainz 05 won 37.4%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 10.5%, while the likeliest Bayer 04 Leverkusen win is 1-2 (8.1%). Both teams score in 66.7% of simulations.
| FSV Mainz 05 win | 37.4% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24.3% |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 38.3% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (10.5%) |
| Expected goals | 1.68 – 1.70 |
| Both teams to score | 66.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.3% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.7% |
| FSV Mainz 05 score first | 45.5% |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen score first | 50% |
| FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet | 18.7% |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen clean sheet | 19.1% |
Borussia Dortmund
Werder Bremen
2.4–1.0
xG
65%
Over 2.5
FC Union Berlin
Elversberg
1.7–1.6
xG
64%
Over 2.5
FC Augsburg
FC Bayern München
1.2–3.3
xG
81%
Over 2.5
Paderborn
VfB Stuttgart
1.4–2.1
xG
66%
Over 2.5
TSG Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV
2.5–1.1
xG
69%
Over 2.5
RB Leipzig
Eintracht Frankfurt
2.4–1.4
xG
73%
Over 2.5
FC Köln
Borussia Mönchengladbach
2.0–1.5
xG
68%
Over 2.5
SC Freiburg
Schalke 04
2.1–1.1
xG
63%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420679170 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Bayer 04 Leverkusen are favourites. They win 38.3% of our 100,000 simulations, against 24.3% for the draw and 37.4% for FSV Mainz 05. Including the draw, Bayer 04 Leverkusen avoid defeat 62.6% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 10.5% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (8.1%) and 2-1 (8%). The likeliest Bayer 04 Leverkusen win is 1-2 (8.1%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 66.7% of simulations. FSV Mainz 05 keep a clean sheet 18.7% of the time and Bayer 04 Leverkusen 19.1%.
The simulations average 3.39 goals: 1.68 for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.70 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Over 1.5 goals lands 85.6% of the time, over 2.5 goals 65.3% and over 3.5 goals 43.7%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Bet365), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
