We simulated Cardiff City vs Watford 100,000 times. Cardiff City won 59,806 of them (59.8%), the draw came up 21.2% of the time and Watford won 19%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 9.7%, while the likeliest Cardiff City win is 2-1 (9.7%). Both teams score in 58.3% of simulations.
| Cardiff City win | 59.8% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 21.2% |
| Watford win | 19% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (9.7%) |
| Expected goals | 2.10 – 1.10 |
| Both teams to score | 58.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.6% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.6% |
| Cardiff City score first | 62.3% |
| Watford score first | 33.4% |
| Cardiff City clean sheet | 33.7% |
| Watford clean sheet | 12.7% |
Wrexham
West Bromwich Albion
1.4–1.1
xG
46%
Over 2.5
Burnley
Charlton Athletic
1.8–0.9
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Millwall
Swansea City
1.6–1.3
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Bristol City
Blackburn Rovers
1.5–1.0
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Bolton Wanderers
2.3–0.9
xG
61%
Over 2.5
Birmingham City
Preston North End
2.0–1.0
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Stoke City
Middlesbrough
1.3–1.6
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Portsmouth
Sheffield United
1.4–1.2
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420643650 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Cardiff City are favourites. They win 59.8% of our 100,000 simulations, against 21.2% for the draw and 19% for Watford. Including the draw, Cardiff City avoid defeat 81% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 9.7% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (9.7%) and 2-0 (9%). The likeliest Cardiff City win is 2-1 (9.7%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 58.3% of simulations. Cardiff City keep a clean sheet 33.7% of the time and Watford 12.7%.
The simulations average 3.20 goals: 2.10 for Cardiff City and 1.10 for Watford. Over 1.5 goals lands 82.8% of the time, over 2.5 goals 61.6% and over 3.5 goals 39.6%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
