We simulated Stoke City vs Middlesbrough 100,000 times. Middlesbrough won 43,249 of them (43.3%), the draw came up 25.4% of the time and Stoke City won 31.4%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.8%, while the likeliest Middlesbrough win is 1-2 (8.9%). Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
| Stoke City win | 31.4% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25.4% |
| Middlesbrough win | 43.3% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.8%) |
| Expected goals | 1.29 – 1.56 |
| Both teams to score | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.9% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.9% |
| Stoke City score first | 47.5% |
| Middlesbrough score first | 46.6% |
| Stoke City clean sheet | 21.5% |
| Middlesbrough clean sheet | 27.9% |
Cardiff City
Watford
2.1–1.1
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Wrexham
West Bromwich Albion
1.4–1.1
xG
46%
Over 2.5
Burnley
Charlton Athletic
1.8–0.9
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Millwall
Swansea City
1.6–1.3
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Bristol City
Blackburn Rovers
1.5–1.0
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Bolton Wanderers
2.3–0.9
xG
61%
Over 2.5
Birmingham City
Preston North End
2.0–1.0
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Portsmouth
Sheffield United
1.4–1.2
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420644091 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Middlesbrough are favourites. They win 43.3% of our 100,000 simulations, against 25.4% for the draw and 31.4% for Stoke City. Including the draw, Middlesbrough avoid defeat 68.6% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.8% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (8.9%) and 0-1 (8.8%). The likeliest Middlesbrough win is 1-2 (8.9%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. Stoke City keep a clean sheet 21.5% of the time and Middlesbrough 27.9%.
The simulations average 2.85 goals: 1.29 for Stoke City and 1.56 for Middlesbrough. Over 1.5 goals lands 77.7% of the time, over 2.5 goals 53.9% and over 3.5 goals 31.9%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
