We simulated Cheltenham Town vs Newport County 100,000 times. Cheltenham Town won 41,759 of them (41.8%), the draw came up 25.7% of the time and Newport County won 32.5%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.1%, while the likeliest Cheltenham Town win is 1-0 (9.1%). Both teams score in 55.7% of simulations.
| Cheltenham Town win | 41.8% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25.7% |
| Newport County win | 32.5% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.1%) |
| Expected goals | 1.49 – 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.2% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.3% |
| Cheltenham Town score first | 51.4% |
| Newport County score first | 42.1% |
| Cheltenham Town clean sheet | 28.1% |
| Newport County clean sheet | 22.9% |
Northampton Town
Colchester United
1.4–0.9
xG
40%
Over 2.5
Bristol Rovers
Swindon Town
2.2–1.0
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Chesterfield
Crewe Alexandra
1.9–1.0
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Barnet
Oldham Athletic
2.0–1.2
xG
61%
Over 2.5
York City
Port Vale
1.8–1.0
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Gillingham
Grimsby Town
1.2–1.5
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Rotherham United
Shrewsbury Town
1.4–1.3
xG
48%
Over 2.5
Crawley Town
Tranmere Rovers
1.5–1.4
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420646556 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Cheltenham Town are favourites. They win 41.8% of our 100,000 simulations, against 25.7% for the draw and 32.5% for Newport County. Including the draw, Cheltenham Town avoid defeat 67.5% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.1% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (9.1%) and 2-1 (8.7%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win is 1-0 (9.1%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 55.7% of simulations. Cheltenham Town keep a clean sheet 28.1% of the time and Newport County 22.9%.
The simulations average 2.77 goals: 1.49 for Cheltenham Town and 1.28 for Newport County. Over 1.5 goals lands 76.4% of the time, over 2.5 goals 52.2% and over 3.5 goals 30.3%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
