We simulated York City vs Port Vale 100,000 times. York City won 54,497 of them (54.5%), the draw came up 24.6% of the time and Port Vale won 20.9%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.6%, while the likeliest York City win is 1-0 (10.8%). Both teams score in 52.1% of simulations.
| York City win | 54.5% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24.6% |
| Port Vale win | 20.9% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.6%) |
| Expected goals | 1.75 – 0.99 |
| Both teams to score | 52.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.6% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.7% |
| York City score first | 58.4% |
| Port Vale score first | 34.8% |
| York City clean sheet | 37.3% |
| Port Vale clean sheet | 17.7% |
Northampton Town
Colchester United
1.4–0.9
xG
40%
Over 2.5
Cheltenham Town
Newport County
1.5–1.3
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Bristol Rovers
Swindon Town
2.2–1.0
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Chesterfield
Crewe Alexandra
1.9–1.0
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Barnet
Oldham Athletic
2.0–1.2
xG
61%
Over 2.5
Gillingham
Grimsby Town
1.2–1.5
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Rotherham United
Shrewsbury Town
1.4–1.3
xG
48%
Over 2.5
Crawley Town
Tranmere Rovers
1.5–1.4
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420646596 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
York City are favourites. They win 54.5% of our 100,000 simulations, against 24.6% for the draw and 20.9% for Port Vale. Including the draw, York City avoid defeat 79.1% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.6% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (10.8%) and 2-0 (9.8%). The likeliest York City win is 1-0 (10.8%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 52.1% of simulations. York City keep a clean sheet 37.3% of the time and Port Vale 17.7%.
The simulations average 2.75 goals: 1.75 for York City and 0.99 for Port Vale. Over 1.5 goals lands 76.2% of the time, over 2.5 goals 51.6% and over 3.5 goals 29.7%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
