We simulated Northampton Town vs Colchester United 100,000 times. Northampton Town won 47,429 of them (47.4%), the draw came up 29.1% of the time and Colchester United won 23.5%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 13.3%, while the likeliest Northampton Town win is 1-0 (13.2%). Both teams score in 45% of simulations.
| Northampton Town win | 47.4% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 29.1% |
| Colchester United win | 23.5% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (13.3%) |
| Expected goals | 1.39 – 0.90 |
| Both teams to score | 45% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% |
| Northampton Town score first | 53.2% |
| Colchester United score first | 35.6% |
| Northampton Town clean sheet | 41% |
| Colchester United clean sheet | 25.3% |
Cheltenham Town
Newport County
1.5–1.3
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Bristol Rovers
Swindon Town
2.2–1.0
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Chesterfield
Crewe Alexandra
1.9–1.0
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Barnet
Oldham Athletic
2.0–1.2
xG
61%
Over 2.5
York City
Port Vale
1.8–1.0
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Gillingham
Grimsby Town
1.2–1.5
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Rotherham United
Shrewsbury Town
1.4–1.3
xG
48%
Over 2.5
Crawley Town
Tranmere Rovers
1.5–1.4
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420646555 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Northampton Town are favourites. They win 47.4% of our 100,000 simulations, against 29.1% for the draw and 23.5% for Colchester United. Including the draw, Northampton Town avoid defeat 76.5% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 13.3% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (13.2%) and 0-0 (11.2%). The likeliest Northampton Town win is 1-0 (13.2%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 45% of simulations. Northampton Town keep a clean sheet 41% of the time and Colchester United 25.3%.
The simulations average 2.29 goals: 1.39 for Northampton Town and 0.90 for Colchester United. Over 1.5 goals lands 67.2% of the time, over 2.5 goals 40% and over 3.5 goals 20%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
