We simulated Chesterfield vs Crewe Alexandra 100,000 times. Chesterfield won 58,253 of them (58.3%), the draw came up 22.6% of the time and Crewe Alexandra won 19.1%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 10.6%, while the likeliest Chesterfield win is 1-0 (10%). Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
| Chesterfield win | 58.3% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 22.6% |
| Crewe Alexandra win | 19.1% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (10.6%) |
| Expected goals | 1.92 – 1.00 |
| Both teams to score | 54% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.8% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.7% |
| Chesterfield score first | 61.8% |
| Crewe Alexandra score first | 32.3% |
| Chesterfield clean sheet | 37% |
| Crewe Alexandra clean sheet | 15% |
Northampton Town
Colchester United
1.4–0.9
xG
40%
Over 2.5
Cheltenham Town
Newport County
1.5–1.3
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Bristol Rovers
Swindon Town
2.2–1.0
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Barnet
Oldham Athletic
2.0–1.2
xG
61%
Over 2.5
York City
Port Vale
1.8–1.0
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Gillingham
Grimsby Town
1.2–1.5
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Rotherham United
Shrewsbury Town
1.4–1.3
xG
48%
Over 2.5
Crawley Town
Tranmere Rovers
1.5–1.4
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420646557 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Chesterfield are favourites. They win 58.3% of our 100,000 simulations, against 22.6% for the draw and 19.1% for Crewe Alexandra. Including the draw, Chesterfield avoid defeat 80.9% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 10.6% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (10%) and 2-0 (9.8%). The likeliest Chesterfield win is 1-0 (10%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 54% of simulations. Chesterfield keep a clean sheet 37% of the time and Crewe Alexandra 15%.
The simulations average 2.93 goals: 1.92 for Chesterfield and 1.00 for Crewe Alexandra. Over 1.5 goals lands 79% of the time, over 2.5 goals 55.8% and over 3.5 goals 33.7%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
