We simulated Colchester United vs Exeter City 100,000 times. Colchester United won 48,068 of them (48.1%), the draw came up 26.1% of the time and Exeter City won 25.9%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.3%, while the likeliest Colchester United win is 1-0 (11.7%). Both teams score in 49.9% of simulations.
| Colchester United win | 48.1% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 26.1% |
| Exeter City win | 25.9% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.3%) |
| Expected goals | 1.51 – 1.03 |
| Both teams to score | 49.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.6% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.3% |
| Colchester United score first | 55.1% |
| Exeter City score first | 36.4% |
| Colchester United clean sheet | 35.9% |
| Exeter City clean sheet | 22.4% |
Shrewsbury Town
Bristol Rovers
1.2–1.3
xG
46%
Over 2.5
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham United
1.5–1.1
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Port Vale
Chesterfield
1.4–1.3
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Crewe Alexandra
Rochdale
1.8–1.0
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Tranmere Rovers
Barnet
1.3–1.6
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Newport County
York City
1.3–1.6
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Swindon Town
Walsall
1.5–1.4
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Oldham Athletic
Cheltenham Town
1.9–1.0
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420646831 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Colchester United are favourites. They win 48.1% of our 100,000 simulations, against 26.1% for the draw and 25.9% for Exeter City. Including the draw, Colchester United avoid defeat 74.2% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.3% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (11.7%) and 2-1 (9.1%). The likeliest Colchester United win is 1-0 (11.7%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 49.9% of simulations. Colchester United keep a clean sheet 35.9% of the time and Exeter City 22.4%.
The simulations average 2.54 goals: 1.51 for Colchester United and 1.03 for Exeter City. Over 1.5 goals lands 72% of the time, over 2.5 goals 46.6% and over 3.5 goals 25.3%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
