We simulated Port Vale vs Chesterfield 100,000 times. Port Vale won 38,342 of them (38.3%), the draw came up 27.9% of the time and Chesterfield won 33.8%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 13.2%, while the likeliest Port Vale win is 1-0 (8.6%). Both teams score in 54.8% of simulations.
| Port Vale win | 38.3% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 27.9% |
| Chesterfield win | 33.8% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (13.2%) |
| Expected goals | 1.39 – 1.29 |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.8% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.1% |
| Port Vale score first | 50.2% |
| Chesterfield score first | 41.9% |
| Port Vale clean sheet | 28% |
| Chesterfield clean sheet | 25.4% |
Shrewsbury Town
Bristol Rovers
1.2–1.3
xG
46%
Over 2.5
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham United
1.5–1.1
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Crewe Alexandra
Rochdale
1.8–1.0
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Tranmere Rovers
Barnet
1.3–1.6
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Newport County
York City
1.3–1.6
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Swindon Town
Walsall
1.5–1.4
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Oldham Athletic
Cheltenham Town
1.9–1.0
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Grimsby Town
Northampton Town
1.9–0.9
xG
51%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420646538 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Port Vale are favourites. They win 38.3% of our 100,000 simulations, against 27.9% for the draw and 33.8% for Chesterfield. Including the draw, Port Vale avoid defeat 66.2% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 13.2% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (8.6%) and 2-1 (8.4%). The likeliest Port Vale win is 1-0 (8.6%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 54.8% of simulations. Port Vale keep a clean sheet 28% of the time and Chesterfield 25.4%.
The simulations average 2.67 goals: 1.39 for Port Vale and 1.29 for Chesterfield. Over 1.5 goals lands 75.3% of the time, over 2.5 goals 49.8% and over 3.5 goals 28.1%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
