We simulated Crewe Alexandra vs Rochdale 100,000 times. Crewe Alexandra won 55,272 of them (55.3%), the draw came up 24.7% of the time and Rochdale won 20%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.6%, while the likeliest Crewe Alexandra win is 1-0 (9.9%). Both teams score in 53.7% of simulations.
| Crewe Alexandra win | 55.3% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24.7% |
| Rochdale win | 20% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.6%) |
| Expected goals | 1.82 – 1.01 |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.5% |
| Crewe Alexandra score first | 60.7% |
| Rochdale score first | 32.4% |
| Crewe Alexandra clean sheet | 36.7% |
| Rochdale clean sheet | 16.6% |
Shrewsbury Town
Bristol Rovers
1.2–1.3
xG
46%
Over 2.5
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham United
1.5–1.1
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Port Vale
Chesterfield
1.4–1.3
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Tranmere Rovers
Barnet
1.3–1.6
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Newport County
York City
1.3–1.6
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Swindon Town
Walsall
1.5–1.4
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Oldham Athletic
Cheltenham Town
1.9–1.0
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Grimsby Town
Northampton Town
1.9–0.9
xG
51%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420646560 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Crewe Alexandra are favourites. They win 55.3% of our 100,000 simulations, against 24.7% for the draw and 20% for Rochdale. Including the draw, Crewe Alexandra avoid defeat 80% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.6% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (9.9%) and 2-0 (9.7%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win is 1-0 (9.9%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 53.7% of simulations. Crewe Alexandra keep a clean sheet 36.7% of the time and Rochdale 16.6%.
The simulations average 2.83 goals: 1.82 for Crewe Alexandra and 1.01 for Rochdale. Over 1.5 goals lands 78% of the time, over 2.5 goals 53.6% and over 3.5 goals 31.5%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
