We simulated Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético de Madrid 100,000 times. Atlético de Madrid won 47,603 of them (47.6%), the draw came up 26.3% of the time and Deportivo Alavés won 26.1%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.4%, while the likeliest Atlético de Madrid win is 0-1 (9.8%). Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
| Deportivo Alavés win | 26.1% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 26.3% |
| Atlético de Madrid win | 47.6% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.4%) |
| Expected goals | 1.12 – 1.60 |
| Both teams to score | 54% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.9% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.1% |
| Deportivo Alavés score first | 37.7% |
| Atlético de Madrid score first | 54.9% |
| Deportivo Alavés clean sheet | 20.6% |
| Atlético de Madrid clean sheet | 32.9% |
Málaga
Espanyol
1.3–1.3
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Rayo Vallecano
Athletic Club
1.3–1.4
xG
50%
Over 2.5
FC Barcelona
Getafe
3.6–0.6
xG
78%
Over 2.5
Real Madrid
Villarreal
2.7–1.1
xG
72%
Over 2.5
Elche
Celta de Vigo
1.2–1.3
xG
44%
Over 2.5
Real Sociedad
Deportivo A Coruña
1.6–1.1
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Real Betis
Osasuna
2.0–0.9
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Racing Santander
Valencia
1.7–1.3
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420654587 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Atlético de Madrid are favourites. They win 47.6% of our 100,000 simulations, against 26.3% for the draw and 26.1% for Deportivo Alavés. Including the draw, Atlético de Madrid avoid defeat 73.9% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.4% of simulations. Next are 0-1 (9.8%) and 1-2 (9.2%). The likeliest Atlético de Madrid win is 0-1 (9.8%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 54% of simulations. Deportivo Alavés keep a clean sheet 20.6% of the time and Atlético de Madrid 32.9%.
The simulations average 2.72 goals: 1.12 for Deportivo Alavés and 1.60 for Atlético de Madrid. Over 1.5 goals lands 75.9% of the time, over 2.5 goals 50.9% and over 3.5 goals 29.1%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
