We simulated Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club 100,000 times. Athletic Club won 37,035 of them (37%), the draw came up 27.8% of the time and Rayo Vallecano won 35.2%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 13.1%, while the likeliest Athletic Club win is 0-1 (8.5%). Both teams score in 54.7% of simulations.
| Rayo Vallecano win | 35.2% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 27.8% |
| Athletic Club win | 37% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (13.1%) |
| Expected goals | 1.31 – 1.36 |
| Both teams to score | 54.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.7% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Rayo Vallecano score first | 47.1% |
| Athletic Club score first | 44.6% |
| Rayo Vallecano clean sheet | 26.2% |
| Athletic Club clean sheet | 27.2% |
Málaga
Espanyol
1.3–1.3
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Deportivo Alavés
Atlético de Madrid
1.1–1.6
xG
51%
Over 2.5
FC Barcelona
Getafe
3.6–0.6
xG
78%
Over 2.5
Real Madrid
Villarreal
2.7–1.1
xG
72%
Over 2.5
Elche
Celta de Vigo
1.2–1.3
xG
44%
Over 2.5
Real Sociedad
Deportivo A Coruña
1.6–1.1
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Real Betis
Osasuna
2.0–0.9
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Racing Santander
Valencia
1.7–1.3
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420654552 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Athletic Club are favourites. They win 37% of our 100,000 simulations, against 27.8% for the draw and 35.2% for Rayo Vallecano. Including the draw, Athletic Club avoid defeat 64.8% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 13.1% of simulations. Next are 0-1 (8.5%) and 1-2 (8.2%). The likeliest Athletic Club win is 0-1 (8.5%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 54.7% of simulations. Rayo Vallecano keep a clean sheet 26.2% of the time and Athletic Club 27.2%.
The simulations average 2.67 goals: 1.31 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.36 for Athletic Club. Over 1.5 goals lands 75.2% of the time, over 2.5 goals 49.7% and over 3.5 goals 28%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
