We simulated Elche vs Celta de Vigo 100,000 times. Celta de Vigo won 38,888 of them (38.9%), the draw came up 29.3% of the time and Elche won 31.8%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 13.7%, while the likeliest Celta de Vigo win is 0-1 (10.3%). Both teams score in 50.1% of simulations.
| Elche win | 31.8% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 29.3% |
| Celta de Vigo win | 38.9% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (13.7%) |
| Expected goals | 1.15 – 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | 50.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.1% |
| Elche score first | 39.7% |
| Celta de Vigo score first | 50.4% |
| Elche clean sheet | 27.8% |
| Celta de Vigo clean sheet | 32.1% |
Málaga
Espanyol
1.3–1.3
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Rayo Vallecano
Athletic Club
1.3–1.4
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Deportivo Alavés
Atlético de Madrid
1.1–1.6
xG
51%
Over 2.5
FC Barcelona
Getafe
3.6–0.6
xG
78%
Over 2.5
Real Madrid
Villarreal
2.7–1.1
xG
72%
Over 2.5
Real Sociedad
Deportivo A Coruña
1.6–1.1
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Real Betis
Osasuna
2.0–0.9
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Racing Santander
Valencia
1.7–1.3
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420654608 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Celta de Vigo are favourites. They win 38.9% of our 100,000 simulations, against 29.3% for the draw and 31.8% for Elche. Including the draw, Celta de Vigo avoid defeat 68.2% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 13.7% of simulations. Next are 0-1 (10.3%) and 0-0 (10%). The likeliest Celta de Vigo win is 0-1 (10.3%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 50.1% of simulations. Elche keep a clean sheet 27.8% of the time and Celta de Vigo 32.1%.
The simulations average 2.44 goals: 1.15 for Elche and 1.30 for Celta de Vigo. Over 1.5 goals lands 70.8% of the time, over 2.5 goals 44% and over 3.5 goals 23.1%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Betfair Exchange), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
