We simulated Real Madrid vs Villarreal 100,000 times. Real Madrid won 69,345 of them (69.3%), the draw came up 16.9% of the time and Villarreal won 13.7%. The most likely score is 2-1 (8.9%), and both teams score in 62.2% of simulations.
| Real Madrid win | 69.3% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 16.9% |
| Villarreal win | 13.7% |
| Most likely score | 2-1 (8.9%) |
| Expected goals | 2.65 – 1.12 |
| Both teams to score | 62.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.1% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 51.7% |
| Real Madrid score first | 73.1% |
| Villarreal score first | 24.3% |
| Real Madrid clean sheet | 33.1% |
| Villarreal clean sheet | 7.5% |
Málaga
Espanyol
1.3–1.3
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Rayo Vallecano
Athletic Club
1.3–1.4
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Deportivo Alavés
Atlético de Madrid
1.1–1.6
xG
51%
Over 2.5
FC Barcelona
Getafe
3.6–0.6
xG
78%
Over 2.5
Elche
Celta de Vigo
1.2–1.3
xG
44%
Over 2.5
Real Sociedad
Deportivo A Coruña
1.6–1.1
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Real Betis
Osasuna
2.0–0.9
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Racing Santander
Valencia
1.7–1.3
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420654590 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Real Madrid are favourites. They win 69.3% of our 100,000 simulations, against 16.9% for the draw and 13.7% for Villarreal. Including the draw, Real Madrid avoid defeat 86.3% of the time.
2-1, which came up in 8.9% of simulations. Next are 2-0 (8.1%) and 3-1 (7.8%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 62.2% of simulations. Real Madrid keep a clean sheet 33.1% of the time and Villarreal 7.5%.
The simulations average 3.77 goals: 2.65 for Real Madrid and 1.12 for Villarreal. Over 1.5 goals lands 88.9% of the time, over 2.5 goals 72.1% and over 3.5 goals 51.7%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Betfair Exchange), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
