We simulated Málaga vs Espanyol 100,000 times. Málaga won 35,859 of them (35.9%), the draw came up 30% of the time and Espanyol won 34.2%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 14.2%, while the likeliest Málaga win is 1-0 (8.4%). Both teams score in 53.2% of simulations.
| Málaga win | 35.9% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 30% |
| Espanyol win | 34.2% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (14.2%) |
| Expected goals | 1.30 – 1.26 |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.9% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.5% |
| Málaga score first | 48.2% |
| Espanyol score first | 42.4% |
| Málaga clean sheet | 28.8% |
| Espanyol clean sheet | 27.8% |
Rayo Vallecano
Athletic Club
1.3–1.4
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Deportivo Alavés
Atlético de Madrid
1.1–1.6
xG
51%
Over 2.5
FC Barcelona
Getafe
3.6–0.6
xG
78%
Over 2.5
Real Madrid
Villarreal
2.7–1.1
xG
72%
Over 2.5
Elche
Celta de Vigo
1.2–1.3
xG
44%
Over 2.5
Real Sociedad
Deportivo A Coruña
1.6–1.1
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Real Betis
Osasuna
2.0–0.9
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Racing Santander
Valencia
1.7–1.3
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420654657 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Málaga are favourites. They win 35.9% of our 100,000 simulations, against 30% for the draw and 34.2% for Espanyol. Including the draw, Málaga avoid defeat 65.8% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 14.2% of simulations. Next are 0-0 (9.7%) and 1-0 (8.4%). The likeliest Málaga win is 1-0 (8.4%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 53.2% of simulations. Málaga keep a clean sheet 28.8% of the time and Espanyol 27.8%.
The simulations average 2.56 goals: 1.30 for Málaga and 1.26 for Espanyol. Over 1.5 goals lands 73.7% of the time, over 2.5 goals 46.9% and over 3.5 goals 25.5%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
