We simulated Exeter City vs Crewe Alexandra 100,000 times. Exeter City won 38,141 of them (38.1%), the draw came up 31.8% of the time and Crewe Alexandra won 30%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 14.7%, while the likeliest Exeter City win is 1-0 (10.8%). Both teams score in 47.2% of simulations.
| Exeter City win | 38.1% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 31.8% |
| Crewe Alexandra win | 30% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (14.7%) |
| Expected goals | 1.22 – 1.05 |
| Both teams to score | 47.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.7% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.7% |
| Exeter City score first | 46.8% |
| Crewe Alexandra score first | 41.1% |
| Exeter City clean sheet | 35.1% |
| Crewe Alexandra clean sheet | 29.9% |
Walsall
Oldham Athletic
1.5–1.2
xG
51%
Over 2.5
York City
Accrington Stanley
1.9–0.9
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Rochdale
Grimsby Town
1.4–1.5
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Cheltenham Town
Fleetwood Town
1.3–1.4
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Crawley Town
Shrewsbury Town
1.3–1.3
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Barnet
Swindon Town
2.4–1.0
xG
65%
Over 2.5
Rotherham United
Newport County
1.5–1.1
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Northampton Town
Tranmere Rovers
1.4–1.0
xG
44%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420646832 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Exeter City are favourites. They win 38.1% of our 100,000 simulations, against 31.8% for the draw and 30% for Crewe Alexandra. Including the draw, Exeter City avoid defeat 70% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 14.7% of simulations. Next are 0-0 (12.2%) and 1-0 (10.8%). The likeliest Exeter City win is 1-0 (10.8%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 47.2% of simulations. Exeter City keep a clean sheet 35.1% of the time and Crewe Alexandra 29.9%.
The simulations average 2.27 goals: 1.22 for Exeter City and 1.05 for Crewe Alexandra. Over 1.5 goals lands 67.8% of the time, over 2.5 goals 39.7% and over 3.5 goals 19.7%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
