We simulated FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen 100,000 times. FSV Mainz 05 won 56,534 of them (56.5%), the draw came up 21.8% of the time and Werder Bremen won 21.6%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 9.7%, while the likeliest FSV Mainz 05 win is 2-1 (9.5%). Both teams score in 61.8% of simulations.
| FSV Mainz 05 win | 56.5% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 21.8% |
| Werder Bremen win | 21.6% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (9.7%) |
| Expected goals | 2.09 – 1.23 |
| Both teams to score | 61.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.3% |
| FSV Mainz 05 score first | 61% |
| Werder Bremen score first | 34.5% |
| FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet | 29.7% |
| Werder Bremen clean sheet | 12.8% |
VfB Stuttgart
Borussia Mönchengladbach
2.7–1.1
xG
72%
Over 2.5
Paderborn
Hamburger SV
1.8–1.4
xG
61%
Over 2.5
FC Augsburg
FC Union Berlin
2.1–1.3
xG
66%
Over 2.5
RB Leipzig
Elversberg
2.8–1.2
xG
76%
Over 2.5
FC Köln
Schalke 04
1.9–1.4
xG
63%
Over 2.5
Borussia Dortmund
Eintracht Frankfurt
2.6–1.2
xG
73%
Over 2.5
TSG Hoffenheim
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
1.8–2.0
xG
72%
Over 2.5
SC Freiburg
FC Bayern München
1.3–2.6
xG
74%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420679108 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
FSV Mainz 05 are favourites. They win 56.5% of our 100,000 simulations, against 21.8% for the draw and 21.6% for Werder Bremen. Including the draw, FSV Mainz 05 avoid defeat 78.4% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 9.7% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (9.5%) and 2-0 (7.9%). The likeliest FSV Mainz 05 win is 2-1 (9.5%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 61.8% of simulations. FSV Mainz 05 keep a clean sheet 29.7% of the time and Werder Bremen 12.8%.
The simulations average 3.32 goals: 2.09 for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.23 for Werder Bremen. Over 1.5 goals lands 84.5% of the time, over 2.5 goals 64% and over 3.5 goals 42.3%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
