We simulated Monza vs Cagliari 100,000 times. Monza won 40,779 of them (40.8%), the draw came up 28.8% of the time and Cagliari won 30.5%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 13.6%, while the likeliest Monza win is 1-0 (9%). Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
| Monza win | 40.8% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 28.8% |
| Cagliari win | 30.5% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (13.6%) |
| Expected goals | 1.43 – 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | 54% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.7% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.1% |
| Monza score first | 47% |
| Cagliari score first | 44.2% |
| Monza clean sheet | 30.5% |
| Cagliari clean sheet | 24.4% |
Frosinone
Sassuolo
1.8–1.5
xG
63%
Over 2.5
Venezia
Napoli
1.2–1.9
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Bologna
Inter
1.1–2.0
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Roma
Genoa
2.2–0.8
xG
57%
Over 2.5
Udinese
Lecce
1.5–1.0
xG
44%
Over 2.5
Fiorentina
Como
1.3–1.6
xG
57%
Over 2.5
AC Milan
Atalanta
1.7–1.1
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Juventus
Lazio
1.7–0.9
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420668834 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Monza are favourites. They win 40.8% of our 100,000 simulations, against 28.8% for the draw and 30.5% for Cagliari. Including the draw, Monza avoid defeat 69.6% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 13.6% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (9%) and 0-0 (8.9%). The likeliest Monza win is 1-0 (9%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 54% of simulations. Monza keep a clean sheet 30.5% of the time and Cagliari 24.4%.
The simulations average 2.63 goals: 1.43 for Monza and 1.20 for Cagliari. Over 1.5 goals lands 74.8% of the time, over 2.5 goals 48.7% and over 3.5 goals 27.1%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
