We simulated NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard 100,000 times. NEC Nijmegen won 57,422 of them (57.4%), the draw came up 21.9% of the time and Fortuna Sittard won 20.7%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 9.5%, while the likeliest NEC Nijmegen win is 2-1 (9.3%). Both teams score in 64.5% of simulations.
| NEC Nijmegen win | 57.4% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 21.9% |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 20.7% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (9.5%) |
| Expected goals | 2.21 – 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | 64.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.3% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% |
| NEC Nijmegen score first | 55.3% |
| Fortuna Sittard score first | 40.4% |
| NEC Nijmegen clean sheet | 28.2% |
| Fortuna Sittard clean sheet | 11.4% |
SC Heerenveen
Excelsior
2.0–1.3
xG
64%
Over 2.5
ADO Den Haag
PSV
1.1–2.9
xG
76%
Over 2.5
Telstar
Feyenoord
1.1–2.9
xG
74%
Over 2.5
Sparta Rotterdam
Willem II
2.1–1.3
xG
65%
Over 2.5
PEC Zwolle
Go Ahead Eagles
1.3–2.0
xG
65%
Over 2.5
SC Cambuur
AZ Alkmaar
1.2–2.5
xG
71%
Over 2.5
FC Groningen
Ajax
1.3–2.3
xG
70%
Over 2.5
FC Twente
FC Utrecht
2.5–1.0
xG
68%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420609670 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
NEC Nijmegen are favourites. They win 57.4% of our 100,000 simulations, against 21.9% for the draw and 20.7% for Fortuna Sittard. Including the draw, NEC Nijmegen avoid defeat 79.3% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 9.5% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (7.4%). The likeliest NEC Nijmegen win is 2-1 (9.3%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 64.5% of simulations. NEC Nijmegen keep a clean sheet 28.2% of the time and Fortuna Sittard 11.4%.
The simulations average 3.49 goals: 2.21 for NEC Nijmegen and 1.28 for Fortuna Sittard. Over 1.5 goals lands 86.8% of the time, over 2.5 goals 67.3% and over 3.5 goals 46%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
