We simulated Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II 100,000 times. Sparta Rotterdam won 55,868 of them (55.9%), the draw came up 21.4% of the time and Willem II won 22.8%. The most likely score is 2-1 (9.4%), and both teams score in 62.5% of simulations.
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 55.9% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 21.4% |
| Willem II win | 22.8% |
| Most likely score | 2-1 (9.4%) |
| Expected goals | 2.09 – 1.26 |
| Both teams to score | 62.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.7% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.9% |
| Sparta Rotterdam score first | 60.3% |
| Willem II score first | 36.1% |
| Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet | 28.6% |
| Willem II clean sheet | 12.9% |
SC Heerenveen
Excelsior
2.0–1.3
xG
64%
Over 2.5
ADO Den Haag
PSV
1.1–2.9
xG
76%
Over 2.5
Telstar
Feyenoord
1.1–2.9
xG
74%
Over 2.5
PEC Zwolle
Go Ahead Eagles
1.3–2.0
xG
65%
Over 2.5
SC Cambuur
AZ Alkmaar
1.2–2.5
xG
71%
Over 2.5
FC Groningen
Ajax
1.3–2.3
xG
70%
Over 2.5
FC Twente
FC Utrecht
2.5–1.0
xG
68%
Over 2.5
NEC Nijmegen
Fortuna Sittard
2.2–1.3
xG
67%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420609720 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Sparta Rotterdam are favourites. They win 55.9% of our 100,000 simulations, against 21.4% for the draw and 22.8% for Willem II. Including the draw, Sparta Rotterdam avoid defeat 77.2% of the time.
2-1, which came up in 9.4% of simulations. Next are 1-1 (9.4%) and 2-0 (7.6%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 62.5% of simulations. Sparta Rotterdam keep a clean sheet 28.6% of the time and Willem II 12.9%.
The simulations average 3.35 goals: 2.09 for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.26 for Willem II. Over 1.5 goals lands 84.6% of the time, over 2.5 goals 64.7% and over 3.5 goals 42.9%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
