We simulated Olympique Marseille vs Toulouse 100,000 times. Olympique Marseille won 47,885 of them (47.9%), the draw came up 22.9% of the time and Toulouse won 29.2%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 10%, while the likeliest Olympique Marseille win is 2-1 (9%). Both teams score in 65% of simulations.
| Olympique Marseille win | 47.9% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 22.9% |
| Toulouse win | 29.2% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (10%) |
| Expected goals | 1.91 – 1.45 |
| Both teams to score | 65% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.9% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.2% |
| Olympique Marseille score first | 53.8% |
| Toulouse score first | 42% |
| Olympique Marseille clean sheet | 23.8% |
| Toulouse clean sheet | 15.3% |
Le Havre
Paris Saint Germain
0.9–2.7
xG
69%
Over 2.5
Nice
Rennes
1.6–1.5
xG
59%
Over 2.5
LOSC Lille
Lens
1.5–1.4
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Troyes
Le Mans
1.5–1.3
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Strasbourg
Auxerre
1.9–1.3
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Paris
Monaco
1.5–1.2
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Olympique Lyonnais
Angers SCO
2.3–1.0
xG
64%
Over 2.5
Lorient
Brest
1.5–1.2
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420660861 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Olympique Marseille are favourites. They win 47.9% of our 100,000 simulations, against 22.9% for the draw and 29.2% for Toulouse. Including the draw, Olympique Marseille avoid defeat 70.8% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 10% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (9%) and 1-2 (6.9%). The likeliest Olympique Marseille win is 2-1 (9%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 65% of simulations. Olympique Marseille keep a clean sheet 23.8% of the time and Toulouse 15.3%.
The simulations average 3.36 goals: 1.91 for Olympique Marseille and 1.45 for Toulouse. Over 1.5 goals lands 84.9% of the time, over 2.5 goals 64.9% and over 3.5 goals 43.2%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
