We simulated Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County 100,000 times. Queens Park Rangers won 52,622 of them (52.6%), the draw came up 24.7% of the time and Derby County won 22.7%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.6%, while the likeliest Queens Park Rangers win is 1-0 (10%). Both teams score in 54.1% of simulations.
| Queens Park Rangers win | 52.6% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24.7% |
| Derby County win | 22.7% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.6%) |
| Expected goals | 1.74 – 1.06 |
| Both teams to score | 54.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% |
| Queens Park Rangers score first | 54% |
| Derby County score first | 39.3% |
| Queens Park Rangers clean sheet | 34.8% |
| Derby County clean sheet | 17.9% |
Cardiff City
Watford
2.1–1.1
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Wrexham
West Bromwich Albion
1.4–1.1
xG
46%
Over 2.5
Burnley
Charlton Athletic
1.8–0.9
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Millwall
Swansea City
1.6–1.3
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Bristol City
Blackburn Rovers
1.5–1.0
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Bolton Wanderers
2.3–0.9
xG
61%
Over 2.5
Birmingham City
Preston North End
2.0–1.0
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Stoke City
Middlesbrough
1.3–1.6
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420644044 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Queens Park Rangers are favourites. They win 52.6% of our 100,000 simulations, against 24.7% for the draw and 22.7% for Derby County. Including the draw, Queens Park Rangers avoid defeat 77.3% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.6% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest Queens Park Rangers win is 1-0 (10%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 54.1% of simulations. Queens Park Rangers keep a clean sheet 34.8% of the time and Derby County 17.9%.
The simulations average 2.81 goals: 1.74 for Queens Park Rangers and 1.06 for Derby County. Over 1.5 goals lands 77.2% of the time, over 2.5 goals 53% and over 3.5 goals 31%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
