We simulated Rochdale vs Accrington Stanley 100,000 times. Rochdale won 42,650 of them (42.7%), the draw came up 26.8% of the time and Accrington Stanley won 30.6%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.6%, while the likeliest Rochdale win is 1-0 (9.2%). Both teams score in 54.9% of simulations.
| Rochdale win | 42.7% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 26.8% |
| Accrington Stanley win | 30.6% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.6%) |
| Expected goals | 1.49 – 1.23 |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.9% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.1% |
| Rochdale score first | 51.5% |
| Accrington Stanley score first | 41.2% |
| Rochdale clean sheet | 29.7% |
| Accrington Stanley clean sheet | 22.9% |
Northampton Town
Colchester United
1.4–0.9
xG
40%
Over 2.5
Cheltenham Town
Newport County
1.5–1.3
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Bristol Rovers
Swindon Town
2.2–1.0
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Chesterfield
Crewe Alexandra
1.9–1.0
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Barnet
Oldham Athletic
2.0–1.2
xG
61%
Over 2.5
York City
Port Vale
1.8–1.0
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Gillingham
Grimsby Town
1.2–1.5
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Rotherham United
Shrewsbury Town
1.4–1.3
xG
48%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420646860 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Rochdale are favourites. They win 42.7% of our 100,000 simulations, against 26.8% for the draw and 30.6% for Accrington Stanley. Including the draw, Rochdale avoid defeat 69.4% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.6% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (9.2%) and 2-1 (8.8%). The likeliest Rochdale win is 1-0 (9.2%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 54.9% of simulations. Rochdale keep a clean sheet 29.7% of the time and Accrington Stanley 22.9%.
The simulations average 2.72 goals: 1.49 for Rochdale and 1.23 for Accrington Stanley. Over 1.5 goals lands 75.8% of the time, over 2.5 goals 50.9% and over 3.5 goals 29.1%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
