We simulated Southampton vs Portsmouth 100,000 times. Southampton won 58,041 of them (58%), the draw came up 23.5% of the time and Portsmouth won 18.5%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11%, while the likeliest Southampton win is 2-0 (9.9%). Both teams score in 54.2% of simulations.
| Southampton win | 58% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23.5% |
| Portsmouth win | 18.5% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11%) |
| Expected goals | 1.93 – 1.00 |
| Both teams to score | 54.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.8% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.8% |
| Southampton score first | 58.2% |
| Portsmouth score first | 35.5% |
| Southampton clean sheet | 37.2% |
| Portsmouth clean sheet | 15% |
West Ham United
Queens Park Rangers
2.3–1.1
xG
65%
Over 2.5
West Bromwich Albion
Birmingham City
1.5–1.2
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Swansea City
Norwich City
1.6–1.2
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Charlton Athletic
Bristol City
1.1–1.3
xG
44%
Over 2.5
Derby County
Wrexham
1.3–1.3
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Middlesbrough
Wolverhampton Wanderers
1.8–1.5
xG
63%
Over 2.5
Preston North End
Millwall
1.5–1.5
xG
57%
Over 2.5
Bolton Wanderers
Stoke City
1.4–1.3
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420644073 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Southampton are favourites. They win 58% of our 100,000 simulations, against 23.5% for the draw and 18.5% for Portsmouth. Including the draw, Southampton avoid defeat 81.5% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11% of simulations. Next are 2-0 (9.9%) and 2-1 (9.7%). The likeliest Southampton win is 2-0 (9.9%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 54.2% of simulations. Southampton keep a clean sheet 37.2% of the time and Portsmouth 15%.
The simulations average 2.93 goals: 1.93 for Southampton and 1.00 for Portsmouth. Over 1.5 goals lands 79.4% of the time, over 2.5 goals 55.8% and over 3.5 goals 33.8%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here FanDuel), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
