We simulated Watford vs Burnley 100,000 times. Watford won 38,411 of them (38.4%), the draw came up 26.6% of the time and Burnley won 35%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.4%, while the likeliest Watford win is 2-1 (8.4%). Both teams score in 57.5% of simulations.
| Watford win | 38.4% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 26.6% |
| Burnley win | 35% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.4%) |
| Expected goals | 1.45 – 1.38 |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.6% |
| Watford score first | 48.3% |
| Burnley score first | 44.7% |
| Watford clean sheet | 25.6% |
| Burnley clean sheet | 23.8% |
West Ham United
Queens Park Rangers
2.3–1.1
xG
65%
Over 2.5
West Bromwich Albion
Birmingham City
1.5–1.2
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Swansea City
Norwich City
1.6–1.2
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Charlton Athletic
Bristol City
1.1–1.3
xG
44%
Over 2.5
Derby County
Wrexham
1.3–1.3
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Middlesbrough
Wolverhampton Wanderers
1.8–1.5
xG
63%
Over 2.5
Preston North End
Millwall
1.5–1.5
xG
57%
Over 2.5
Bolton Wanderers
Stoke City
1.4–1.3
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420644054 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Watford are favourites. They win 38.4% of our 100,000 simulations, against 26.6% for the draw and 35% for Burnley. Including the draw, Watford avoid defeat 65% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.4% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (8.4%) and 1-2 (8%). The likeliest Watford win is 2-1 (8.4%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 57.5% of simulations. Watford keep a clean sheet 25.6% of the time and Burnley 23.8%.
The simulations average 2.83 goals: 1.45 for Watford and 1.38 for Burnley. Over 1.5 goals lands 77.9% of the time, over 2.5 goals 53.6% and over 3.5 goals 31.6%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Betfair Exchange), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
