We simulated Al Ahli vs Al Nassr 100,000 times. Al Nassr won 40,156 of them (40.2%), the draw came up 24.6% of the time and Al Ahli won 35.2%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.1%, while the likeliest Al Nassr win is 1-2 (8.5%). Both teams score in 62.7% of simulations.
| Al Ahli win | 35.2% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24.6% |
| Al Nassr win | 40.2% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.1%) |
| Expected goals | 1.52 – 1.63 |
| Both teams to score | 62.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.6% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.6% |
| Al Ahli score first | 48% |
| Al Nassr score first | 46.7% |
| Al Ahli clean sheet | 20% |
| Al Nassr clean sheet | 22.4% |
Al Faisaly
Al Kholood
1.2–1.4
xG
48%
Over 2.5
Al Khaleej
Al-Fayha
1.4–1.1
xG
45%
Over 2.5
Al Hazm
Al Fateh
1.5–1.4
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Al-Qadsiah
Abha
2.9–0.7
xG
70%
Over 2.5
Al Riyadh
Al Hilal
0.6–3.0
xG
69%
Over 2.5
Al Ittihad
Al Shabab
2.0–1.3
xG
64%
Over 2.5
NEOM SC
Al Ettifaq
1.9–1.2
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Al Diraiyah FC
Al Taawoun
1.6–1.3
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420635967 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Al Nassr are favourites. They win 40.2% of our 100,000 simulations, against 24.6% for the draw and 35.2% for Al Ahli. Including the draw, Al Nassr avoid defeat 64.8% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.1% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (8.5%) and 2-1 (7.9%). The likeliest Al Nassr win is 1-2 (8.5%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 62.7% of simulations. Al Ahli keep a clean sheet 20% of the time and Al Nassr 22.4%.
The simulations average 3.15 goals: 1.52 for Al Ahli and 1.63 for Al Nassr. Over 1.5 goals lands 82.4% of the time, over 2.5 goals 60.6% and over 3.5 goals 38.6%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
