We simulated Arsenal vs Everton 100,000 times. Arsenal won 67,048 of them (67.1%), the draw came up 21.3% of the time and Everton won 11.6%. The most likely score is 2-0 (12.9%), and both teams score in 45.6% of simulations.
| Arsenal win | 67.1% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 21.3% |
| Everton win | 11.6% |
| Most likely score | 2-0 (12.9%) |
| Expected goals | 2.05 – 0.73 |
| Both teams to score | 45.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.4% |
| Arsenal score first | 67.5% |
| Everton score first | 25.5% |
| Arsenal clean sheet | 48.4% |
| Everton clean sheet | 13.3% |
Ipswich Town
Nottingham Forest
1.4–1.5
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Aston Villa
Manchester City
1.3–2.0
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Coventry City
Fulham
1.4–1.5
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Chelsea
Tottenham Hotspur
2.1–1.1
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Hull City
Brentford
1.2–1.7
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United
1.7–1.6
xG
63%
Over 2.5
Manchester United
AFC Bournemouth
1.8–1.3
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Liverpool
Brighton & Hove Albion
1.7–1.5
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420665802 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Arsenal are favourites. They win 67.1% of our 100,000 simulations, against 21.3% for the draw and 11.6% for Everton. Including the draw, Arsenal avoid defeat 88.4% of the time.
2-0, which came up in 12.9% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (12%) and 1-1 (10%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 45.6% of simulations. Arsenal keep a clean sheet 48.4% of the time and Everton 13.3%.
The simulations average 2.78 goals: 2.05 for Arsenal and 0.73 for Everton. Over 1.5 goals lands 76.9% of the time, over 2.5 goals 52.3% and over 3.5 goals 30.4%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
