We simulated Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United 100,000 times. Crystal Palace won 37,934 of them (37.9%), the draw came up 25.3% of the time and Newcastle United won 36.8%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.2%, while the likeliest Crystal Palace win is 2-1 (8.2%). Both teams score in 65.5% of simulations.
| Crystal Palace win | 37.9% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25.3% |
| Newcastle United win | 36.8% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.2%) |
| Expected goals | 1.65 – 1.63 |
| Both teams to score | 65.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.4% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.5% |
| Crystal Palace score first | 43.2% |
| Newcastle United score first | 51.6% |
| Crystal Palace clean sheet | 20.1% |
| Newcastle United clean sheet | 19.6% |
Ipswich Town
Nottingham Forest
1.4–1.5
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Aston Villa
Manchester City
1.3–2.0
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Arsenal
Everton
2.1–0.7
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Coventry City
Fulham
1.4–1.5
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Chelsea
Tottenham Hotspur
2.1–1.1
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Hull City
Brentford
1.2–1.7
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Manchester United
AFC Bournemouth
1.8–1.3
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Liverpool
Brighton & Hove Albion
1.7–1.5
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420665921 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Crystal Palace are favourites. They win 37.9% of our 100,000 simulations, against 25.3% for the draw and 36.8% for Newcastle United. Including the draw, Crystal Palace avoid defeat 63.2% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.2% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (8.2%) and 1-2 (8.1%). The likeliest Crystal Palace win is 2-1 (8.2%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 65.5% of simulations. Crystal Palace keep a clean sheet 20.1% of the time and Newcastle United 19.6%.
The simulations average 3.28 goals: 1.65 for Crystal Palace and 1.63 for Newcastle United. Over 1.5 goals lands 84.7% of the time, over 2.5 goals 63.4% and over 3.5 goals 41.5%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
