We simulated Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur 100,000 times. Chelsea won 57,937 of them (57.9%), the draw came up 21.7% of the time and Tottenham Hotspur won 20.4%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 9.9%, while the likeliest Chelsea win is 2-1 (9.6%). Both teams score in 59.2% of simulations.
| Chelsea win | 57.9% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 21.7% |
| Tottenham Hotspur win | 20.4% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (9.9%) |
| Expected goals | 2.06 – 1.14 |
| Both teams to score | 59.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.7% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.7% |
| Chelsea score first | 66.4% |
| Tottenham Hotspur score first | 28.8% |
| Chelsea clean sheet | 32.3% |
| Tottenham Hotspur clean sheet | 13.2% |
Ipswich Town
Nottingham Forest
1.4–1.5
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Aston Villa
Manchester City
1.3–2.0
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Arsenal
Everton
2.1–0.7
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Coventry City
Fulham
1.4–1.5
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Hull City
Brentford
1.2–1.7
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United
1.7–1.6
xG
63%
Over 2.5
Manchester United
AFC Bournemouth
1.8–1.3
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Liverpool
Brighton & Hove Albion
1.7–1.5
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420665803 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Chelsea are favourites. They win 57.9% of our 100,000 simulations, against 21.7% for the draw and 20.4% for Tottenham Hotspur. Including the draw, Chelsea avoid defeat 79.6% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 9.9% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (8.6%). The likeliest Chelsea win is 2-1 (9.6%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 59.2% of simulations. Chelsea keep a clean sheet 32.3% of the time and Tottenham Hotspur 13.2%.
The simulations average 3.20 goals: 2.06 for Chelsea and 1.14 for Tottenham Hotspur. Over 1.5 goals lands 82.9% of the time, over 2.5 goals 61.7% and over 3.5 goals 39.7%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
