We simulated Manchester United vs AFC Bournemouth 100,000 times. Manchester United won 49,851 of them (49.9%), the draw came up 24.7% of the time and AFC Bournemouth won 25.4%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.3%, while the likeliest Manchester United win is 2-1 (9.4%). Both teams score in 60.8% of simulations.
| Manchester United win | 49.9% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24.7% |
| AFC Bournemouth win | 25.4% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.3%) |
| Expected goals | 1.84 – 1.26 |
| Both teams to score | 60.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.7% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.6% |
| Manchester United score first | 51.8% |
| AFC Bournemouth score first | 42.5% |
| Manchester United clean sheet | 28.6% |
| AFC Bournemouth clean sheet | 16.3% |
Ipswich Town
Nottingham Forest
1.4–1.5
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Aston Villa
Manchester City
1.3–2.0
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Arsenal
Everton
2.1–0.7
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Coventry City
Fulham
1.4–1.5
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Chelsea
Tottenham Hotspur
2.1–1.1
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Hull City
Brentford
1.2–1.7
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United
1.7–1.6
xG
63%
Over 2.5
Liverpool
Brighton & Hove Albion
1.7–1.5
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420665970 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Manchester United are favourites. They win 49.9% of our 100,000 simulations, against 24.7% for the draw and 25.4% for AFC Bournemouth. Including the draw, Manchester United avoid defeat 74.6% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.3% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (9.4%) and 2-0 (7.6%). The likeliest Manchester United win is 2-1 (9.4%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 60.8% of simulations. Manchester United keep a clean sheet 28.6% of the time and AFC Bournemouth 16.3%.
The simulations average 3.11 goals: 1.84 for Manchester United and 1.26 for AFC Bournemouth. Over 1.5 goals lands 82.3% of the time, over 2.5 goals 59.7% and over 3.5 goals 37.6%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
