We simulated Aston Villa vs Manchester City 100,000 times. Manchester City won 52,966 of them (53%), the draw came up 23% of the time and Aston Villa won 24%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 10.4%, while the likeliest Manchester City win is 1-2 (9.5%). Both teams score in 61.4% of simulations.
| Aston Villa win | 24% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23% |
| Manchester City win | 53% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (10.4%) |
| Expected goals | 1.26 – 1.96 |
| Both teams to score | 61.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.9% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.9% |
| Aston Villa score first | 38.3% |
| Manchester City score first | 57% |
| Aston Villa clean sheet | 14.6% |
| Manchester City clean sheet | 28.8% |
Ipswich Town
Nottingham Forest
1.4–1.5
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Arsenal
Everton
2.1–0.7
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Coventry City
Fulham
1.4–1.5
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Chelsea
Tottenham Hotspur
2.1–1.1
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Hull City
Brentford
1.2–1.7
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United
1.7–1.6
xG
63%
Over 2.5
Manchester United
AFC Bournemouth
1.8–1.3
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Liverpool
Brighton & Hove Albion
1.7–1.5
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420665858 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Manchester City are favourites. They win 53% of our 100,000 simulations, against 23% for the draw and 24% for Aston Villa. Including the draw, Manchester City avoid defeat 76% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 10.4% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (9.5%) and 0-2 (7.7%). The likeliest Manchester City win is 1-2 (9.5%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 61.4% of simulations. Aston Villa keep a clean sheet 14.6% of the time and Manchester City 28.8%.
The simulations average 3.21 goals: 1.26 for Aston Villa and 1.96 for Manchester City. Over 1.5 goals lands 83.2% of the time, over 2.5 goals 61.9% and over 3.5 goals 39.9%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
