We simulated Arsenal vs Leeds United 100,000 times. Arsenal won 66,408 of them (66.4%), the draw came up 19.9% of the time and Leeds United won 13.7%. The most likely score is 1-0 (12.2%), and both teams score in 46.7% of simulations.
| Arsenal win | 66.4% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 19.9% |
| Leeds United win | 13.7% |
| Most likely score | 1-0 (12.2%) |
| Expected goals | 2.04 – 0.78 |
| Both teams to score | 46.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.4% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.5% |
| Arsenal score first | 68% |
| Leeds United score first | 26.1% |
| Arsenal clean sheet | 45.9% |
| Leeds United clean sheet | 13.5% |
Sunderland
Brighton & Hove Albion
1.4–1.6
xG
57%
Over 2.5
Chelsea
AFC Bournemouth
2.0–1.3
xG
63%
Over 2.5
Aston Villa
Brentford
1.5–1.6
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Ipswich Town
Fulham
1.5–1.5
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Manchester United
Tottenham Hotspur
2.0–1.2
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Hull City
Everton
1.1–1.4
xG
43%
Over 2.5
Crystal Palace
Nottingham Forest
1.3–1.4
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Liverpool
Manchester City
1.6–1.6
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420665726 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Arsenal are favourites. They win 66.4% of our 100,000 simulations, against 19.9% for the draw and 13.7% for Leeds United. Including the draw, Arsenal avoid defeat 86.3% of the time.
1-0, which came up in 12.2% of simulations. Next are 2-0 (12.2%) and 2-1 (9.4%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 46.7% of simulations. Arsenal keep a clean sheet 45.9% of the time and Leeds United 13.5%.
The simulations average 2.83 goals: 2.04 for Arsenal and 0.78 for Leeds United. Over 1.5 goals lands 76.8% of the time, over 2.5 goals 53.4% and over 3.5 goals 31.5%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Betano), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
