We simulated Liverpool vs Manchester City 100,000 times. Manchester City won 37,685 of them (37.7%), the draw came up 25.4% of the time and Liverpool won 37%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.5%, while the likeliest Manchester City win is 1-2 (8.3%). Both teams score in 62.5% of simulations.
| Liverpool win | 37% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25.4% |
| Manchester City win | 37.7% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.5%) |
| Expected goals | 1.55 – 1.57 |
| Both teams to score | 62.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.9% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.8% |
| Liverpool score first | 48% |
| Manchester City score first | 46.4% |
| Liverpool clean sheet | 21.3% |
| Manchester City clean sheet | 21.7% |
Arsenal
Leeds United
2.0–0.8
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Sunderland
Brighton & Hove Albion
1.4–1.6
xG
57%
Over 2.5
Chelsea
AFC Bournemouth
2.0–1.3
xG
63%
Over 2.5
Aston Villa
Brentford
1.5–1.6
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Ipswich Town
Fulham
1.5–1.5
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Manchester United
Tottenham Hotspur
2.0–1.2
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Hull City
Everton
1.1–1.4
xG
43%
Over 2.5
Crystal Palace
Nottingham Forest
1.3–1.4
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420665834 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Manchester City are favourites. They win 37.7% of our 100,000 simulations, against 25.4% for the draw and 37% for Liverpool. Including the draw, Manchester City avoid defeat 63% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.5% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (8.3%) and 2-1 (8.2%). The likeliest Manchester City win is 1-2 (8.3%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 62.5% of simulations. Liverpool keep a clean sheet 21.3% of the time and Manchester City 21.7%.
The simulations average 3.11 goals: 1.55 for Liverpool and 1.57 for Manchester City. Over 1.5 goals lands 82.2% of the time, over 2.5 goals 59.9% and over 3.5 goals 37.8%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
