We simulated Aston Villa vs Brentford 100,000 times. Brentford won 39,028 of them (39%), the draw came up 26% of the time and Aston Villa won 35%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.8%, while the likeliest Brentford win is 1-2 (8.5%). Both teams score in 62.4% of simulations.
| Aston Villa win | 35% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 26% |
| Brentford win | 39% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.8%) |
| Expected goals | 1.50 – 1.59 |
| Both teams to score | 62.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.4% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.3% |
| Aston Villa score first | 43% |
| Brentford score first | 50.8% |
| Aston Villa clean sheet | 20.8% |
| Brentford clean sheet | 22.8% |
Arsenal
Leeds United
2.0–0.8
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Sunderland
Brighton & Hove Albion
1.4–1.6
xG
57%
Over 2.5
Chelsea
AFC Bournemouth
2.0–1.3
xG
63%
Over 2.5
Ipswich Town
Fulham
1.5–1.5
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Manchester United
Tottenham Hotspur
2.0–1.2
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Hull City
Everton
1.1–1.4
xG
43%
Over 2.5
Crystal Palace
Nottingham Forest
1.3–1.4
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Liverpool
Manchester City
1.6–1.6
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420665971 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Brentford are favourites. They win 39% of our 100,000 simulations, against 26% for the draw and 35% for Aston Villa. Including the draw, Brentford avoid defeat 65% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.8% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (8.5%) and 2-1 (8%). The likeliest Brentford win is 1-2 (8.5%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 62.4% of simulations. Aston Villa keep a clean sheet 20.8% of the time and Brentford 22.8%.
The simulations average 3.09 goals: 1.50 for Aston Villa and 1.59 for Brentford. Over 1.5 goals lands 82.2% of the time, over 2.5 goals 59.4% and over 3.5 goals 37.3%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
