We simulated Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth 100,000 times. Chelsea won 51,164 of them (51.2%), the draw came up 24.1% of the time and AFC Bournemouth won 24.7%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 10.8%, while the likeliest Chelsea win is 2-1 (9.3%). Both teams score in 63.5% of simulations.
| Chelsea win | 51.2% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24.1% |
| AFC Bournemouth win | 24.7% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (10.8%) |
| Expected goals | 1.96 – 1.32 |
| Both teams to score | 63.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.4% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.5% |
| Chelsea score first | 59.6% |
| AFC Bournemouth score first | 35.5% |
| Chelsea clean sheet | 27.1% |
| AFC Bournemouth clean sheet | 14.5% |
Arsenal
Leeds United
2.0–0.8
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Sunderland
Brighton & Hove Albion
1.4–1.6
xG
57%
Over 2.5
Aston Villa
Brentford
1.5–1.6
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Ipswich Town
Fulham
1.5–1.5
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Manchester United
Tottenham Hotspur
2.0–1.2
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Hull City
Everton
1.1–1.4
xG
43%
Over 2.5
Crystal Palace
Nottingham Forest
1.3–1.4
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Liverpool
Manchester City
1.6–1.6
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420665902 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Chelsea are favourites. They win 51.2% of our 100,000 simulations, against 24.1% for the draw and 24.7% for AFC Bournemouth. Including the draw, Chelsea avoid defeat 75.3% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 10.8% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Chelsea win is 2-1 (9.3%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 63.5% of simulations. Chelsea keep a clean sheet 27.1% of the time and AFC Bournemouth 14.5%.
The simulations average 3.28 goals: 1.96 for Chelsea and 1.32 for AFC Bournemouth. Over 1.5 goals lands 84.7% of the time, over 2.5 goals 63.4% and over 3.5 goals 41.5%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
