We simulated Auxerre vs Le Mans 100,000 times. Auxerre won 48,361 of them (48.4%), the draw came up 24.9% of the time and Le Mans won 26.8%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.5%, while the likeliest Auxerre win is 2-1 (9.3%). Both teams score in 59.1% of simulations.
| Auxerre win | 48.4% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24.9% |
| Le Mans win | 26.8% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.5%) |
| Expected goals | 1.75 – 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | 59.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.5% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.4% |
| Auxerre score first | 51% |
| Le Mans score first | 43.2% |
| Auxerre clean sheet | 29% |
| Le Mans clean sheet | 17.8% |
Brest
Nice
1.7–1.2
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Toulouse
Troyes
1.9–1.1
xG
57%
Over 2.5
Lens
Paris
1.7–1.3
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Monaco
LOSC Lille
1.6–1.2
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Angers SCO
Lorient
1.2–1.4
xG
48%
Over 2.5
Olympique Marseille
Le Havre
2.1–1.2
xG
63%
Over 2.5
Rennes
Strasbourg
2.4–1.3
xG
70%
Over 2.5
Paris Saint Germain
Olympique Lyonnais
2.4–1.1
xG
67%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420660805 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Auxerre are favourites. They win 48.4% of our 100,000 simulations, against 24.9% for the draw and 26.8% for Le Mans. Including the draw, Auxerre avoid defeat 73.2% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.5% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (9.3%) and 1-0 (8%). The likeliest Auxerre win is 2-1 (9.3%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 59.1% of simulations. Auxerre keep a clean sheet 29% of the time and Le Mans 17.8%.
The simulations average 3.00 goals: 1.75 for Auxerre and 1.25 for Le Mans. Over 1.5 goals lands 80.5% of the time, over 2.5 goals 57.5% and over 3.5 goals 35.4%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
