We simulated Toulouse vs Troyes 100,000 times. Toulouse won 53,536 of them (53.5%), the draw came up 23.8% of the time and Troyes won 22.6%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.1%, while the likeliest Toulouse win is 2-1 (9.6%). Both teams score in 56.9% of simulations.
| Toulouse win | 53.5% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23.8% |
| Troyes win | 22.6% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.1%) |
| Expected goals | 1.85 – 1.12 |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.8% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.7% |
| Toulouse score first | 55.1% |
| Troyes score first | 39% |
| Toulouse clean sheet | 32.8% |
| Troyes clean sheet | 16.2% |
Brest
Nice
1.7–1.2
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Lens
Paris
1.7–1.3
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Monaco
LOSC Lille
1.6–1.2
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Angers SCO
Lorient
1.2–1.4
xG
48%
Over 2.5
Olympique Marseille
Le Havre
2.1–1.2
xG
63%
Over 2.5
Auxerre
Le Mans
1.8–1.3
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Rennes
Strasbourg
2.4–1.3
xG
70%
Over 2.5
Paris Saint Germain
Olympique Lyonnais
2.4–1.1
xG
67%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420660877 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Toulouse are favourites. They win 53.5% of our 100,000 simulations, against 23.8% for the draw and 22.6% for Troyes. Including the draw, Toulouse avoid defeat 77.4% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.1% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (9.6%) and 1-0 (9%). The likeliest Toulouse win is 2-1 (9.6%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 56.9% of simulations. Toulouse keep a clean sheet 32.8% of the time and Troyes 16.2%.
The simulations average 2.97 goals: 1.85 for Toulouse and 1.12 for Troyes. Over 1.5 goals lands 79.9% of the time, over 2.5 goals 56.8% and over 3.5 goals 34.7%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
