We simulated Derby County vs Stoke City 100,000 times. Derby County won 37,384 of them (37.4%), the draw came up 28.4% of the time and Stoke City won 34.2%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 13.4%, while the likeliest Derby County win is 1-0 (9%). Both teams score in 53.2% of simulations.
| Derby County win | 37.4% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 28.4% |
| Stoke City win | 34.2% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (13.4%) |
| Expected goals | 1.33 – 1.26 |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.8% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.4% |
| Derby County score first | 44.3% |
| Stoke City score first | 46.6% |
| Derby County clean sheet | 28.8% |
| Stoke City clean sheet | 26.9% |
Cardiff City
Watford
2.1–1.1
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Wrexham
West Bromwich Albion
1.4–1.1
xG
46%
Over 2.5
Burnley
Charlton Athletic
1.8–0.9
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Millwall
Swansea City
1.6–1.3
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Bristol City
Blackburn Rovers
1.5–1.0
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Bolton Wanderers
2.3–0.9
xG
61%
Over 2.5
Birmingham City
Preston North End
2.0–1.0
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Stoke City
Middlesbrough
1.3–1.6
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420643639 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Derby County are favourites. They win 37.4% of our 100,000 simulations, against 28.4% for the draw and 34.2% for Stoke City. Including the draw, Derby County avoid defeat 65.8% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 13.4% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (9%) and 0-0 (8.8%). The likeliest Derby County win is 1-0 (9%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 53.2% of simulations. Derby County keep a clean sheet 28.8% of the time and Stoke City 26.9%.
The simulations average 2.59 goals: 1.33 for Derby County and 1.26 for Stoke City. Over 1.5 goals lands 73.8% of the time, over 2.5 goals 47.8% and over 3.5 goals 26.4%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here 1xBet), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
